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Anil Thapa
Tradeoffs

A result from the exercise · Fictional scenario

One margin for planning and evidence on the AI assistant

Four demands, capacity for two. One of six possible pairs: what it buys, what it assumes, what it leaves exposed, and what would change it.

A fictional quarter in a central data team at a mid-size company. Four requests arrived, each sized to fill one of the team's two delivery slots, so two are done and two wait on their interim paths. Three facts are not yet known: when annual planning starts, whether the staffing view would read from the pipeline that has run late, and whether the executive team will decide on the assistant with or without evidence. Each pair leans on some of them, and its review says which.

  1. ChosenOne margin for planningThe CFO: Finance and Sales each report gross margin, and the two disagree by enough to change a conversation. Annual planning will set targets and spending for a year on one of them. The CFO wants the margin planning uses agreed, with an accountable owner and a stated bridge to the other view.Today An analyst reconciles the two by hand each month, about two days of work, and each report carries a footnote explaining the other.
  2. DeferredFreshness alertsThe managers who run the morning meeting: Three times this quarter the morning report was stale, and the first person to notice was in the meeting that used it. They want to be told when a pipeline is late, before the report is opened, and told what to use instead.Today An analyst checks the load timestamps before eight. It works on the mornings the analyst remembers and is in, and when it fails the meeting finds out for itself.
  3. DeferredA staffing viewThe head of operations: Next week's roster is set every Monday from a spreadsheet an analyst pulls that morning, and it is committed for the week: too many people on shift costs money, too few costs service. They want a view that puts the demand forecast against capacity while the decision is still open.Today The Monday extract. When the analyst is out, the roster is set on the previous week's numbers, and it is set either way.
  4. ChosenEvidence on the AI assistantThe executive team: They have seen a demo of an assistant that answers questions from the warehouse and want to know whether to roll it out. Someone has to run the evaluation: the question set, the data the assistant may see, who in the business reviews its answers, and what evidence would justify proceeding, narrowing or stopping.Today Nothing is launched. The question comes up every month, and a vendor demo is the only evidence anyone has.

Both items are about what the company will be able to trust next year. Operations still sets the roster from Monday's spreadsheet, and the morning report is still late on the mornings it is late.

What this choice buys

Planning runs on one agreed margin with an owner. The executive team gets an evidenced recommendation on the assistant: a question set drawn from what people actually ask, the data it may see, business reviewers for its answers, and a finding to proceed, narrow or stop. Rollout stays a separate decision the sponsor owns. Margin is in the question set, so how the assistant handles a disputed definition is reported rather than discovered in use.

When it holds

It holds when the executive team will decide on the assistant this year with or without evidence, and when reviewers in the business can give the evaluation a few hours a week. A recommendation to stop is a useful result; this pair is not a bet that the assistant ships.

What you accept

A staffing view, deferred
The roster stays on the Monday extract, set on the previous week's numbers when the analyst is out. Operations carries it with a named backup and a count of those Mondays, reviewed at quarter end. The head of operations watches two executive requests get funded and theirs wait, and is owed that reason in person rather than in a roadmap.
Freshness alerts, deferred
The morning check stays manual, with an owner, a backup and a review of missed mornings after a month. The evaluation includes the case where a table has not landed, so the assistant is scored on whether it says so, and a correct refusal scores as a correct answer.
The chosen work, once delivered
An evaluation set is not finished when the quarter is: every change to a definition or the model reruns it, and someone who knows the domain reads the failures.

What changes the choice

Replace the evaluation with the staffing view if the sponsor agrees to hold the rollout decision until next quarter. The roster is set every Monday whether or not the evidence arrives; a held decision costs a quarter of waiting.

Make your own choice

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